Authors:
- Rafael L. Peixoto: -

- Cesar I.N. Sampaio Filho: Google Scholar

- Humberto A. Carmona: Google Scholar ResearchGate

- Mabell K.M. Beserra: -

- José S. Andrade Jr.: Google Scholar

- Saulo D.S. Reis: Google Scholar ResearchGate

Abstract: »Accurate reporting of rape cases is crucial for understanding the scope of sexual violence and for developing effective strategies to prevent and address it. However, data from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) remain affected by underreporting, especially in large cities. We investigate how notification patterns evolved between 2010 and 2021 across all Brazilian municipalities. We apply urban scaling analysis and two complementary statistical frameworks: a Bayesian hierarchical model at state level and a maximum-entropy formulation. The Bayesian approach captures structured heterogeneity across states, while the maximum-entropy model characterizes the least-biased probabilistic behavior constrained by the empirical moments of the data. We find that the number of reported rape cases, denoted by Y, scales with the population size N according to a power-law relation, Y∼Nβ. The Bayesian exponent β increases from 0.94±0.04 in 2010 to 1.33±0.03 in 2021. The maximum-entropy exponent β′ shows a similar trend but deviates in early years, yielding β′=1.30±0.12 in 2010. This divergence suggests heterogeneous and incomplete reporting across states. After the 2014 federal directive mandating 24-hour notification, both approaches converge, indicating more uniform reporting practices. The rescaling of the conditional distributions of the number of reported cases for a given population size P(Y|N) leads to a consistent exponential collapse in recent years, confirming a more homogeneous scaling regime. These results may indicate a progressive decline of underreporting and the emergence of a consistent scaling regime in SINAN data. The convergence between Bayesian and maximum-entropy exponents demonstrates that reporting has become more uniform nationwide. Together, these approaches provide complementary structural and statistical perspectives on the mechanisms driving improvements in rape-case reporting in Brazil.« (Source: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications)

Contents: -

Wikipedia: History of the Americas: History of Brazil / History of Brazil (1985–present) | Sex and the law: Rape / Rape in Brazil